Top 5 Cards you Want When Investing in Basketball

When it comes to investing in a player, what cards to buy can often leave buyers with a difficult decision. Over the last year, the rise in card prices have risen dramatically tightening many investors’ budgets. So it is important now more than ever you make every penny count and invest in the products people want. In a tightening market, you don’t want to have successfully invested in a player but end up having cards from products like; Status, Illusions, and other products that aren’t very desirable. In this article, it will feature my top 5 cards to go after when investing or simply collecting a player.

(Not in any specific order)

Panini Prizm has established itself as the premier brand for cards over the last few years. Originating in 2012, it has been one of the longest running products that Panini has produced. With worries in the community about mass production and the fall of base cards, there doesn’t seem to be much talk about the value of numbered Prizm. You want to avoid fast break and wave parallels even if numbered, those cards tend to do poorly over time compared to the true hobby parallels. Shimmers and pulsars also offer a tier above fast break but still below color numbered parallels in hobby. Despite many liking the pulsar design, they are retail exclusive which does not give it the premium feel or open market value that hobby parallels will. The one exception to the rule would have to be the Prizm Choice Tiger Stripe due the rarity and popularity of this card. Despite it not being numbered, there is a hobby consensus of the rarity which reflects in the value. Here are the go to parallels in my opinion when looking to invest in a players Prizm cards.

Hobby Prizm’s to go after:

Red #/299, Blue #/199, Purple Ice #/175, Blue Ice #/125, Purple #/99, Orange #/49, Mojo #/25, Gold #/10, Black Gold #/5, Black 1/1,

Choice Prizm’s to go after:
Tiger Stripe, Red #/88, Blue #/49, Green #/8, Nebula 1/1.

National Treasures has been one of the most beloved products by collectors over the last fifteen plus years. For the first five years, National Treasures Football was produced by Donruss. With Panini purchasing Donruss in 2008, Panini did not hold back when releasing 2009–10 National Treasures basketball. National Treasures immediately became the must have RPA (rookie patch auto) for collectors and investors alike. In recent years the true RPA has been the vertical but the horizontal variation offers a nice cheaper alternative. One of the most distinctive and attractive attributes to the National Treasures rookie patch autos is they are always sleek modern white or light color designs with a relatively large patch and on card auto. National Treasures has been an established product for over fifteen years and has a plethora of things going for it. All other products that offer rookie patch autos often have stickers or a drastically smaller patch window.

As you can see above, the true RPA of star players in a BGS slab of 9.5 or higher demand a hefty price. If you are confident about a player who struggled his rookie year and or did not get many minutes, the National Treasures true RPA can pay off massively.

A player like Michael Porter Jr is a perfect example of this, skyrocketing over the last thirteen months. This card was $3,600 or less during his rookie year and first playing season (pre shutdown) and most recently sold for $21,705. That is an increase of over $18,000 during a time when many people are concerned about the market dipping.

First let me start off by saying this will likely not apply to 2020–21 Panini Select due to the retail adaptation. 2020 Panini Select football was very concerning for what the future of Select basketball might be. 2019–20 Select basketball and prior, courtsides were extremely hard to pull at just 2 per box. At 60 cards per box over the last few years in select products, courtsides were just 3% of the product regardless if base or color.

As you can see above, along with the rarity is also the elimination of the excessive non numbered color parallels . Select courtsides give you the most sought after colored parallels along with the rarity that premier and concourse do not have. In today’s era of cards, just 2 per box is insane to me and the prices reflect that.

Picking superstar Luka Doncic three levels of Select silver PSA 10 rookies, you can see the glaring disparity. The number of sales all time also show how despite not being numbered how much more rare the courtside silver is over the premier and concourse.

Flawless is known by many as the most expensive basketball product that comes in a literal briefcase. The main selling point for the Flawless true rookie patch autograph is the fact the patches are game worn. When investing in a player, it is very seldom you would not want the player’s best card (non 1/1) from the highest end product. There is also tons of room for growth in Flawless rookie patch autos, as mentioned prior it is the only product with game worn rookie cards. Despite many in the hobby knowing this, the market for the time being does not seem to care with National Treasures reigning supreme. A downside to Flawless rookie patch autos is there seems to be some confusion over what the true RPA is every year.

Above are the 2019–20 Flawless Patch Auto sets that include all the rookies in addition to having the rookie emblem/logo on the card. The Bazley vertical is the 2019 Flawless true rookie patch autograph. In early years Flawless and other products, the rookie logo was often excluded unless it was the true rookie set. I know this sales pitch might not be all that positive but for what you might be paying on the true RPA it is important to mention all the potential downsides.

If you can tell a trend going on of products that are ten plus years old you are right, Contenders has been a staple in the hobby for over twenty years. Primarily a football product made by Playoff, it has produced some of the most iconic and expensive rookie autographs since 1999.

The three most expensive sales of the GOAT or Tom Brady cards in history are all Contenders rookie autographs /100. With Panini gaining licenses in 2009, it also bought Playoff and decided to carry on the tradition of Contenders. Unfortunately for basketball the Contenders we all know and loved got scrapped after 2009–10. Panini made it in 2010 and 2012 but a strange version with manufactured patches and paint explosions… All while football had new variations and short prints every year with the cracked ice parallel that was an immediate hit. Not until 2017–18 would we see Contenders basketball in the traditional rookie ticket form with on card autographs. The Contenders cracked ice parallel quickly became the favorite parallel from the set by all collectors and prices reflected it. Depending on the year being numbered to 23 or 25 with three variations, it offers a beautiful design with an on card autograph. In addition with a limited print run but not so much so it is impossible to find or absurdly expensive for most players.

The one thing you can expect from these cards is consistency, the Contenders brand is not going anywhere nor is this parallel. With all the panic and fear mongering in the hobby, the time to panic is when Contenders is no longer. Surviving a recession and global pandemic, this brand has stood the test of hobby time.

Honorable mentions

Unfortunately not in this year’s Donruss due to COVID. Next Day’s are always a smash hit with collectors often offering the first on card licensed rookie autographs. A downside to this set is its not numbered and the production seems to be increasing as the years go on.

A veteran heavy set often has a few of the top rookies sneak in, due to that it did not make the top 5. The black acetate finish with gold ink on card offers a unique and beautiful design that many collectors love. Extremely tough to grade with bad corners unfortunately for those who like to only invest in graded cards.

What I like to call “the poor man’s NT RPA”, Silhouettes are always beautiful on card autographs with a large patch window. Starting in 2011–12 Preferred basketball, this set has withstood the test of hobby time as it was so popular despite Preferred getting canned they introduced it into Crown Royale. Prime silhouette’s in my opinion are the best alternative to the National Treasures RPA for collectors on a budget. They can still be fairly pricey for the top tier guys but nothing near the higher end rookie patch auto brands. There is also a non patch silhouette with just a jersey that’s an even cheaper alternative.

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